A standard that provides rules for evaluating evidence and updating your beliefs.
Bayes Theorem as presented by Neil Kakkar
- Edwards W, Lindman H, Savage LJ. 1963. Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychol. Rev. 70:193–242 Introduction to Bayesian inference, written for psychologists, providing normative standard for assessment of bias.
- Kyburg HE, Smokler HE, eds. 1964. Studies in Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley
- Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1983. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychol. Rev. 90:293–315
- Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185(4157):1124–31 Seminal article for heuristics and biases approaches to judgment and decision making.